What Will EAA Airventure Look Like in Ten Years?
You know what time it is.
EAA Airventure 2023 (AKA Oshkosh) is on the horizon, folks. Let’s talk aviation.
Our buddy works for a legacy aircraft company that specializes in aerial application, a task more commonly referred to as crop dusting. We recently asked if he had considered the possibility that in the near future, drones might be spraying fields rather than airplanes. “No way,” he said. He argued they’re too small, the battery life too short, and the industry too old-school to adopt modern contraptions.
While that might be true today, what about in three years? Five years? Ten years?
The conversation got us thinking about the future of the aviation industry’s biggest event. What will Oshkosh 2033 be like? What recent innovations will, in ten years time, be old news? What traditions will hold strong? Who’s gonna be there?
Some of this will probably sound like speculative fiction, but hey, we’re an industrial design studio. Innovation is our bread and butter.
In 2033, EVTOL is king
Nowadays, you go to Oshkosh and EVTOL aircraft are basically the sideshows; diverting, strange, and still very much in the preliminary design stages. On the main drag, Cessna -- oops, sorry, we mean Textron -- and other legacy companies hold court. But will it always be that way?
We predict that in ten years, the main drag will still be occupied by the same companies. They have the money, infastructure, and people-power to stay in the game. However, their production lines will look entirely different: EVTOL aircraft will be the new aviation standard for all things except large commercial flights, and even commercial jets could look radically different, both inside and outside.
It’s likely that Textron will wait and see which EVTOL companies outlast the competition, then simply buy them out. That said, companies like Jobi, which just rolled out their first protoype, may go the way of Tesla or Rivian and become too big to buy. In that case, the main drag at Oshkosh will just have to make room.
2. More history to celebrate
Celebrating aviation history is one of the coolest parts of Oshkosh, and we don’t think that will ever change. In ten years, there will be a whole new generation of veterans and aviators ready to share their experiences and show their planes. And let’s be real, the museum tent is the only one with air conditioning…so let’s hope it sticks around.
Of all the eras of aviation history, the WWII recreations are our favorites, though we’ve had the privilege to speak to veterans from many different generations. We met an American guy one year who was so dedicated to his WWII British accent, he wouldn’t even break character in the beer tent. We trust there will always be aviators like him who love to reenact the past.
3.Flight will be more accessible (and so will OshKosh)
Aviation will face one of it’s greatest challenges in the next decade: pilot shortages. In February of this year, the Associated Press reported a government projection of 18,000 openings a year over the next ten years given the rate of retirement.
Yet there’s little incentive to become a pilot nowadays. Flight school is crazy expensive and takes years to complete, and afterwards your only hope for becoming a commercial pilot is if you take a job as a flight instructor, which pays an average of $68,000 a year. It’s a long, slow climb to the top.
There’s reason to hope, however. Technology may open the gates of flight wide open, as simplified vehicle operations (SVO) becomes more and more advanced. In ten years, you and I may be able to rent and fly planes in the same way we can rent and pilot a boat. As aviation becomes more accessible, odds are OshKosh will as well. Young people who attend the event with their families could be inspired to become pilots themselves. That’s good news for a shrinking industry.
Whether its 2023 or 2033, EAA Airventure will always be fantastic.
We’ve been attending this event for over ten years now, and it never fails to entertain and enrich us. Even if in ten years, EVTOL has taken over the skies and the event is five times bigger, we know the heart of the thing will always be a love for aviation. One thing we ask is that there never be a silent, drone-operated airshow. It wouldn’t be Oshkosh without screaming fighter jets, big a$$ explosions, and the wall of fire. Amiright?
What do you think EAA Airventure will be like in ten years?
Let us know on LinkedIn or Facebook. For more information about us, you can read our blog, check out our design process, or contact us directly.